* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 37 36 32 29 25 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 36 37 36 32 29 25 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 31 33 34 34 32 29 25 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 15 17 17 16 22 27 33 36 37 35 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 3 5 5 4 6 4 4 7 SHEAR DIR 321 320 324 321 314 292 287 282 266 263 276 262 261 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.4 27.9 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 155 157 158 160 153 150 149 150 144 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 69 67 66 62 65 66 67 63 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 4 0 1 1 0 -5 -12 -17 -7 -2 7 13 200 MB DIV 16 26 22 -1 -10 -1 33 33 51 37 24 38 54 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -4 -6 -3 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1163 1215 1270 1352 1445 1549 1696 1847 2025 2239 2415 2239 1998 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.9 112.2 113.7 115.1 118.1 121.1 124.1 126.8 129.6 132.3 134.7 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 13 14 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 34 37 33 37 38 33 17 12 33 24 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 7. 4. 0. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##