* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922014 07/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 39 45 50 55 58 60 60 63 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 39 45 50 55 58 60 60 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 55 61 64 66 65 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 13 13 6 14 17 23 23 24 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -6 -4 -3 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 55 49 44 30 19 335 318 296 299 269 281 271 287 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.6 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 119 117 117 118 120 125 127 130 133 141 145 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 116 116 117 119 124 128 130 132 140 142 138 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 13 14 13 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 45 44 42 40 37 36 38 41 46 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 7 -2 -5 -3 -12 -7 -34 -48 -67 -65 -100 200 MB DIV -18 -7 0 12 6 -9 -2 -1 8 8 -2 2 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 -2 -1 1 1 3 8 12 16 16 25 LAND (KM) 1336 1259 1196 1131 1066 970 906 663 539 416 77 83 80 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.5 15.4 16.6 17.9 19.2 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.6 42.9 44.2 45.6 46.9 49.8 53.0 56.2 59.4 62.2 65.1 67.5 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 15 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 4 13 9 13 32 33 32 39 37 43 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 30. 33. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922014 INVEST 07/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922014 INVEST 07/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922014 INVEST 07/21/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)