* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 22 22 21 21 20 19 19 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 22 22 21 21 20 19 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 17 17 21 13 13 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 6 5 3 0 3 2 5 3 SHEAR DIR 304 284 277 278 275 270 248 232 246 268 268 272 290 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 156 155 153 152 153 153 149 145 142 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 68 67 67 72 74 75 72 72 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 9 9 4 -12 -19 -10 -1 -3 2 9 10 200 MB DIV -3 -23 7 28 45 38 46 65 52 42 49 35 29 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1479 1547 1624 1668 1722 1827 1954 2098 2252 2433 2523 2333 2141 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.6 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.9 116.1 117.5 118.8 121.4 123.9 126.3 128.5 130.7 132.7 134.6 136.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 42 43 37 31 28 22 29 42 27 16 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -24. -25. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##