* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 50 55 60 63 64 64 66 67 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 50 55 60 63 64 64 65 66 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 48 54 61 65 67 68 67 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 13 14 12 13 14 24 22 27 22 19 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -6 -2 0 2 3 5 SHEAR DIR 50 42 28 15 8 317 309 296 301 294 302 302 313 SST (C) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 119 120 122 127 128 130 136 142 145 145 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 117 118 119 121 126 128 129 135 140 141 137 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 51 47 44 43 41 39 38 37 38 42 45 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 6 -2 -5 -3 -9 -1 -17 -26 -57 -55 -70 -99 200 MB DIV 0 14 18 13 -2 -16 2 14 4 2 0 -9 2 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 1 3 14 21 17 25 LAND (KM) 1220 1152 1095 1034 986 905 804 574 537 321 5 105 120 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.6 15.6 16.8 18.2 19.5 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 44.4 45.7 47.1 48.4 51.3 54.3 57.4 60.4 63.1 65.7 68.0 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 4 15 13 5 27 28 37 41 40 15 38 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 34. 34. 36. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/21/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)