* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 22 23 21 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 23 22 23 22 23 21 21 21 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 9 14 16 18 7 5 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 3 4 4 2 1 2 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 285 277 274 273 275 252 231 215 238 231 244 212 256 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 156 156 154 152 152 153 152 149 143 141 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 69 67 69 72 76 74 74 73 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 9 8 2 -4 -7 8 16 21 15 16 25 200 MB DIV -20 7 30 42 51 50 51 66 46 53 30 42 5 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -1 0 -2 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1561 1632 1676 1723 1778 1887 1988 2135 2294 2439 2500 2335 2191 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 11.0 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.5 117.8 119.1 120.3 122.7 124.9 127.1 129.2 131.1 132.8 134.4 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 36 31 28 25 20 28 40 23 15 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##