* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/22/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 48 51 53 53 57 62 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 44 48 51 53 53 57 45 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 36 40 45 49 52 55 57 46 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 14 13 12 17 18 23 21 21 11 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -6 -3 -1 1 3 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 35 21 16 8 350 330 299 305 288 306 298 293 221 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 120 122 125 129 130 133 142 144 144 143 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 118 120 124 130 131 134 143 144 141 137 139 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 42 42 38 38 38 40 44 47 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 1 -6 -8 -10 -17 -4 -28 -35 -36 -20 -36 -46 200 MB DIV 14 25 24 11 -12 0 -3 8 -7 -10 3 -14 -21 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 0 4 8 12 17 11 LAND (KM) 1165 1097 1029 972 933 862 676 489 434 155 44 -54 15 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 17.7 18.7 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.6 46.8 48.1 49.3 52.4 55.7 59.1 62.6 65.8 68.7 71.4 73.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 14 16 16 17 16 16 14 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 14 18 8 9 31 27 30 48 38 59 75 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 18. 21. 23. 23. 27. 32. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/22/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)