* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 46 49 50 53 56 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 46 49 50 53 41 42 44 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 47 49 51 41 40 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 11 14 16 22 21 22 13 13 5 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -5 -2 0 4 4 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 18 9 8 350 330 316 300 298 289 310 267 291 239 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 119 121 123 125 127 129 132 139 144 146 142 144 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 122 124 127 131 134 139 143 143 136 135 135 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 41 39 39 38 39 44 47 50 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -5 -6 -17 -3 -20 -34 -47 -27 -28 -61 -98 200 MB DIV 16 20 11 -8 -5 -5 10 10 10 30 -11 0 0 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -5 -6 -3 -3 3 8 13 17 20 13 LAND (KM) 1086 1021 967 922 881 810 568 508 168 52 -66 22 73 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.8 15.0 16.1 17.0 18.0 19.1 20.1 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 45.7 47.1 48.4 49.8 51.1 54.2 58.0 61.5 64.7 67.7 70.4 72.7 74.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 17 19 17 15 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 6 13 27 28 34 7 41 68 74 20 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 16. 19. 20. 23. 26. 32. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/22/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)