* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/22/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 34 34 34 33 32 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 29 31 34 34 34 33 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 24 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 9 8 14 11 11 6 4 10 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 275 278 279 277 261 236 226 239 251 222 226 277 273 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 155 154 152 152 152 152 149 145 139 134 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 70 70 69 73 72 74 72 73 73 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 6 2 -4 -5 -4 -5 30 34 36 38 41 40 30 200 MB DIV 25 51 54 48 57 49 53 14 41 57 59 28 25 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 2 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1676 1720 1772 1819 1874 1967 2088 2222 2364 2449 2426 2264 2109 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 119.0 120.2 121.4 122.5 124.6 126.6 128.5 130.3 131.8 133.2 134.6 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 31 29 28 26 20 22 32 32 20 15 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -14. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/22/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/22/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##