* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 38 43 45 48 48 52 56 61 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 38 43 45 48 48 44 35 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 46 47 43 34 42 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 14 18 19 26 25 22 7 13 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 -4 -3 1 6 2 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 2 359 342 325 325 297 302 292 312 286 277 218 N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 126 128 129 130 135 143 146 144 143 146 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 126 129 130 133 137 144 144 139 135 135 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 11 11 13 12 14 13 14 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 39 39 38 39 41 46 50 52 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 -6 -14 -17 -2 -29 -38 -42 -21 -55 -72 N/A 200 MB DIV 20 11 -6 -2 -5 0 8 2 -3 1 -21 -8 N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -7 -4 -7 -4 0 10 13 19 13 N/A LAND (KM) 1011 952 910 865 850 602 496 315 59 -11 -10 106 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.3 14.1 15.2 16.2 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.6 50.0 51.6 53.1 56.6 60.2 63.6 66.6 69.4 71.7 73.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 18 18 16 15 13 12 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 17 32 33 29 36 47 65 74 12 28 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 8. 13. 15. 18. 18. 22. 26. 31. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/22/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED