* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/22/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 31 34 34 34 35 38 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 27 29 31 34 34 34 35 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 29 31 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 6 7 8 6 4 4 1 8 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 281 279 277 254 241 233 246 216 220 336 308 358 6 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 153 152 152 152 150 146 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 72 72 72 70 70 69 65 68 68 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -2 0 -1 -5 18 33 40 46 57 49 31 200 MB DIV 56 42 37 43 57 56 27 32 47 46 56 23 11 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1786 1839 1899 1951 2002 2128 2269 2417 2522 2460 2371 2292 2227 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.0 121.2 122.4 123.5 124.6 126.7 128.7 130.5 132.0 133.2 134.0 134.7 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 23 21 20 29 36 25 20 18 15 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 10. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/22/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/22/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##