* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 46 48 49 52 57 62 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 43 46 48 49 45 43 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 40 43 45 47 43 41 38 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 18 17 24 24 27 17 16 7 12 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -6 -4 0 4 3 0 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 4 342 320 319 313 296 294 295 321 269 282 255 N/A SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 28.1 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 127 129 130 132 141 145 144 144 147 150 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 125 128 130 132 134 142 145 142 138 139 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 39 38 38 39 41 44 48 48 49 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -9 -14 1 -13 -19 -23 -12 -6 -34 -67 N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -6 -4 1 2 8 9 3 44 -15 -8 6 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -5 -7 -6 -6 3 9 10 17 12 N/A LAND (KM) 956 911 873 859 731 477 497 193 80 -23 11 0 N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.4 15.4 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.2 51.6 53.3 54.9 58.6 62.1 65.5 68.5 71.3 73.5 75.3 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 17 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 20 32 32 26 26 45 47 64 76 57 82 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 22. 27. 32. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/22/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED