* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/22/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 29 33 37 39 41 41 39 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 25 29 33 37 39 41 41 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 10 11 9 7 4 9 9 13 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 -1 2 4 0 1 4 8 4 SHEAR DIR 270 270 254 242 249 246 290 300 293 306 324 331 323 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 153 153 152 152 151 147 142 140 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 71 72 71 68 68 64 62 64 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 0 -2 -5 6 13 20 24 39 50 54 43 200 MB DIV 46 41 37 51 57 58 34 42 41 48 15 6 -6 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1844 1910 1966 2023 2085 2228 2390 2531 2458 2330 2255 2211 2161 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.4 122.6 123.8 124.9 125.9 128.1 130.1 131.9 133.3 134.5 135.2 135.6 136.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 20 21 27 35 28 19 17 13 10 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/22/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/22/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##