* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 42 45 48 53 58 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 38 40 42 40 32 39 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 36 38 38 38 30 35 39 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 16 20 28 29 28 17 17 8 6 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 1 4 2 -1 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 331 313 315 305 291 289 281 304 297 304 247 280 N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 129 129 131 137 145 144 144 145 149 150 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 129 131 133 139 146 143 139 137 138 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 13 14 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 39 38 38 39 43 49 51 52 53 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -11 0 -3 -23 -29 -25 -14 -47 -60 -105 N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -1 1 4 1 13 12 21 4 -20 -6 -12 N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -6 -5 -7 -6 4 8 12 21 14 10 N/A LAND (KM) 922 892 891 732 590 490 284 75 -8 -37 31 74 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.2 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.5 20.7 21.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.9 53.3 55.1 56.9 60.6 63.9 67.2 69.9 72.5 74.5 76.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 16 18 18 18 17 15 13 12 10 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 31 32 26 32 39 49 76 75 81 35 31 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 23. 28. 29. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/23/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED