* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/23/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 36 40 42 40 39 38 37 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 31 36 40 42 40 39 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 13 11 11 9 14 10 9 8 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -2 -1 2 -1 2 3 7 5 6 SHEAR DIR 275 262 251 257 248 265 272 303 308 307 312 323 321 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 152 153 151 145 141 138 136 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 72 73 68 68 65 64 64 63 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 -2 -5 -4 4 20 25 29 31 38 45 32 200 MB DIV 41 45 60 57 76 70 57 58 61 18 4 2 8 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1939 1994 2056 2128 2205 2360 2505 2411 2282 2197 2139 2089 2010 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.3 125.5 126.7 127.8 130.0 132.0 133.6 134.8 135.6 136.1 136.6 137.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 24 30 33 30 20 16 11 8 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 17. 15. 14. 13. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##