* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022014 07/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 42 46 50 55 59 64 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 40 42 46 49 53 57 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 36 37 38 35 43 48 55 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 22 27 27 28 21 21 16 22 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -7 -6 -4 0 -1 -5 -6 -8 -5 N/A SHEAR DIR 315 315 301 288 291 285 302 319 287 279 270 279 N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.5 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.2 29.6 29.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 130 130 133 144 146 145 147 156 162 165 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 132 132 136 150 149 146 145 151 153 152 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 15 15 16 15 15 N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 36 36 38 41 44 44 45 44 45 43 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -13 -2 -11 -17 -11 -19 -20 -12 -35 -61 -83 N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -1 5 1 6 5 4 0 -6 1 -11 -16 N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -6 -6 -6 2 0 8 5 10 7 N/A LAND (KM) 910 843 694 571 501 376 155 30 7 55 132 69 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.7 16.6 17.4 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.2 54.0 55.7 57.5 59.3 63.3 67.4 71.2 74.5 77.4 79.7 81.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 20 19 18 16 13 11 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 29 27 33 29 47 54 50 13 63 69 79 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 20. 25. 29. 34. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022014 TWO 07/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022014 TWO 07/23/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)