* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/23/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 46 49 47 43 40 36 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 46 49 47 43 40 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 28 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 10 10 10 8 8 9 11 12 16 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 2 3 4 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 276 263 255 256 275 303 286 273 286 310 297 307 296 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 152 152 149 144 140 136 132 131 129 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 74 71 68 67 64 66 65 64 63 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 13 14 15 15 14 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 -3 0 9 28 34 37 43 35 41 31 23 200 MB DIV 57 60 73 75 87 95 104 87 54 14 2 -21 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -4 -6 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2010 2063 2122 2181 2244 2380 2472 2436 2335 2265 2217 2148 2039 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.2 14.4 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.3 126.4 127.4 128.4 130.4 132.0 133.1 133.9 134.4 134.7 135.3 136.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 32 33 35 26 20 19 13 8 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. -19. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 12. 11. 10. 10. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 21. 24. 22. 18. 15. 11. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##