* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/23/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 48 45 43 39 38 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 47 48 45 43 39 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 26 27 27 27 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 8 10 10 11 10 6 13 16 22 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 1 1 8 5 3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 256 263 267 276 278 280 306 316 305 304 312 316 308 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 153 152 151 146 141 138 136 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 70 68 66 64 65 66 68 68 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 14 16 16 15 15 15 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 2 8 12 16 26 39 41 42 42 42 28 200 MB DIV 72 85 101 96 81 91 95 62 31 -5 9 -4 -19 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 2073 2133 2197 2261 2328 2435 2475 2378 2319 2277 2239 2160 2023 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.6 127.7 128.7 129.7 131.5 132.8 133.6 134.1 134.4 134.7 135.4 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 5 4 2 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 32 32 29 21 20 14 11 8 7 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 23. 20. 18. 14. 13. 11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##