* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/23/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 44 44 42 36 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 44 44 42 36 31 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 10 15 15 13 9 14 20 22 27 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -4 4 7 4 4 4 2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 276 291 285 291 301 267 309 291 288 286 305 299 297 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 152 152 152 146 142 138 136 133 132 129 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 67 66 64 61 62 62 62 61 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 16 16 15 16 14 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 0 6 8 5 7 22 38 48 50 46 31 31 16 200 MB DIV 106 109 87 58 48 95 58 36 -3 0 -24 -22 -10 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 2181 2244 2310 2366 2414 2477 2388 2305 2204 2091 1980 1859 1735 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.0 14.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.4 129.3 130.2 131.1 132.7 133.5 134.2 135.0 136.0 137.1 138.1 139.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 9 9 6 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 32 26 22 20 15 10 6 4 5 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 14. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 19. 19. 17. 11. 6. 3. 1. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/23/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##