* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 07/24/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 43 42 38 32 27 23 22 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 40 43 42 38 32 27 23 22 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 26 25 23 21 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 10 5 7 6 16 17 21 23 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -3 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 355 5 6 350 321 241 253 252 251 246 239 235 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 148 146 139 135 132 132 129 128 127 125 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 76 76 75 74 70 60 55 52 51 48 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 48 45 42 33 26 26 15 14 12 27 33 200 MB DIV 48 70 55 59 48 59 55 44 8 3 24 25 24 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1985 1880 1776 1678 1581 1405 1248 1108 962 810 677 548 453 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.2 11.9 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 139.5 140.5 141.5 142.4 143.3 144.9 146.2 147.3 148.5 149.8 151.0 152.3 153.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 38 36 33 29 21 8 4 7 7 3 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 23. 22. 18. 12. 7. 3. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 07/24/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 07/24/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##