* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 07/24/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 41 41 39 35 31 28 26 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 38 41 41 39 35 31 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 28 27 25 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 6 7 8 11 16 14 21 22 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -2 -2 -1 2 -1 -1 -4 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 15 23 41 37 353 331 287 297 270 270 264 267 258 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 150 147 144 139 135 134 133 131 129 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 74 72 62 55 51 52 51 48 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 47 40 41 40 30 35 19 24 14 18 18 36 200 MB DIV 71 56 40 33 34 33 57 -1 9 53 54 0 8 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 -4 -4 0 -2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1937 1832 1728 1642 1557 1405 1264 1116 971 820 699 583 482 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 139.9 140.9 141.9 142.7 143.5 144.9 146.1 147.4 148.6 149.9 151.1 152.3 153.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 34 31 28 21 9 4 8 10 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 18. 21. 21. 19. 15. 11. 8. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 07/24/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 07/24/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##