* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 39 37 37 33 30 28 24 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 39 37 37 33 30 28 24 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 23 21 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 7 7 10 8 18 19 21 16 16 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 0 1 2 6 0 4 2 0 0 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 303 307 280 245 258 281 283 294 310 322 315 321 307 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 149 147 145 141 138 136 135 133 133 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 67 65 62 62 66 66 63 57 53 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 16 17 18 17 18 16 16 14 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 17 24 26 37 44 42 44 47 37 37 42 30 30 200 MB DIV 76 53 43 66 88 86 45 -16 -33 -17 -6 -23 -30 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 2346 2392 2434 2479 2436 2337 2218 2088 1955 1793 1605 1371 1118 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 27 20 19 20 17 10 5 3 4 8 2 4 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 8. 7. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 7. 3. 0. -2. -6. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##