* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 07/24/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 35 36 36 35 30 26 25 23 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 35 36 36 35 30 26 25 23 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 26 25 24 22 21 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 2 3 7 10 12 18 20 23 27 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -5 -6 -2 -3 -6 -7 -4 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 63 74 97 231 301 256 249 234 236 241 254 247 255 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 143 141 137 136 136 134 132 128 126 124 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 73 72 68 58 51 49 48 45 45 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 46 41 36 39 32 19 26 14 17 21 34 200 MB DIV 50 25 28 23 35 44 55 31 37 43 38 15 20 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1775 1680 1587 1507 1428 1279 1141 999 839 676 538 414 330 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.5 143.4 144.2 144.9 146.2 147.5 148.8 150.3 151.7 152.9 154.0 154.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 26 23 20 11 5 10 19 8 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 16. 15. 10. 6. 5. 3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 07/24/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 07/24/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##