* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 32 37 40 42 40 36 32 30 28 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 32 37 40 42 40 36 32 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 25 25 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 2 3 2 8 8 17 20 23 23 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 -6 -8 -7 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 65 91 193 249 243 251 260 227 240 244 245 238 246 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 140 139 139 139 137 134 131 128 128 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -51.7 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 67 63 57 53 54 52 49 47 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 48 44 38 44 40 29 26 13 16 18 21 200 MB DIV 38 43 29 36 16 37 27 52 44 66 61 54 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -6 -2 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1601 1506 1412 1332 1253 1113 971 813 656 522 456 434 446 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.5 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.5 145.4 146.2 147.0 148.4 149.9 151.4 153.1 154.6 155.9 157.2 158.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 23 17 10 7 22 27 8 9 17 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 17. 20. 22. 20. 16. 12. 10. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##