* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/24/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 33 34 36 34 34 30 26 20 16 15 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 33 34 36 34 34 30 26 20 16 15 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 29 27 25 23 22 21 19 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 9 11 13 11 17 19 21 17 19 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 4 3 7 1 4 3 3 1 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 304 283 258 255 270 261 285 294 313 313 297 287 276 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 145 142 140 137 135 134 132 128 126 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 64 61 62 63 63 57 54 47 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 15 16 16 18 17 18 16 15 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 25 29 34 38 46 53 50 47 41 44 41 50 57 200 MB DIV 48 51 65 73 73 58 35 -32 -41 -50 -24 -11 13 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 7 6 7 LAND (KM) 2481 2494 2420 2360 2301 2212 2145 2048 1897 1706 1465 1229 989 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 17 12 8 5 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 7. 9. 6. 5. 1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 4. 0. -4. -10. -14. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/24/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/24/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##