* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/25/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 35 40 42 42 39 37 35 33 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 35 40 42 42 39 37 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 28 28 27 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 2 2 4 8 11 14 15 15 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -2 -2 0 -3 -5 -4 -7 0 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 100 55 350 357 175 218 230 238 247 256 234 243 253 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 143 141 142 142 142 139 135 132 130 129 129 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 70 66 62 60 58 58 57 54 50 48 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 50 50 47 38 34 32 28 32 21 28 22 30 30 200 MB DIV 65 56 52 44 36 39 51 49 80 111 73 19 -22 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1452 1363 1277 1210 1143 1018 887 745 613 540 527 559 568 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 145.4 146.4 147.4 148.2 148.9 150.3 151.8 153.5 155.1 156.4 157.7 158.8 159.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 11 8 8 18 24 15 17 28 25 20 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 20. 22. 22. 19. 18. 15. 13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##