* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 30 34 38 40 39 36 32 29 27 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 30 34 38 40 39 36 32 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 26 27 28 27 25 23 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 4 2 6 7 7 13 14 14 18 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -1 -3 -6 -4 -4 -3 -3 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 22 18 31 123 188 211 222 260 243 242 221 239 247 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 142 142 141 142 142 139 134 130 127 126 126 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 69 64 61 59 56 58 55 50 46 47 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 12 13 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 38 33 36 42 42 41 28 32 29 32 31 47 200 MB DIV 70 67 66 63 77 58 44 36 92 72 44 -13 -14 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 -3 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1491 1419 1349 1294 1241 1121 962 778 612 504 424 402 380 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.7 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 145.0 145.8 146.6 147.2 147.8 149.1 150.6 152.2 153.7 155.0 156.0 156.9 157.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 8 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 18 12 8 9 25 19 7 11 14 15 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 20. 19. 16. 12. 9. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##