* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 33 28 24 22 18 17 18 16 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 33 28 24 22 18 17 18 16 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 36 35 31 28 25 23 22 20 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 19 19 16 20 22 21 26 16 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 1 1 3 1 -1 -5 -8 -5 0 1 SHEAR DIR 285 283 288 284 286 289 302 315 317 314 322 305 238 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 139 137 137 135 132 130 127 126 124 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 63 63 63 62 57 52 52 56 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 17 17 15 14 14 13 12 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 20 18 30 40 34 32 30 19 12 12 7 200 MB DIV 62 73 79 79 74 42 -9 -25 -17 -6 3 37 35 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 2366 2307 2247 2198 2149 2051 1934 1783 1622 1460 1303 1086 812 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 6 5 4 3 5 8 2 2 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -7. -11. -13. -17. -18. -17. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##