* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912014 07/25/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 29 28 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 28 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 19 17 16 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 20 20 16 20 22 20 26 16 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 1 1 3 1 -1 -5 -8 -5 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 283 281 284 283 284 289 301 315 316 313 318 299 238 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 139 137 137 135 132 130 127 126 124 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 65 63 63 64 62 56 53 52 56 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 17 15 14 14 13 12 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 21 21 32 41 34 32 30 18 14 12 7 200 MB DIV 60 70 74 77 74 44 -9 -26 -18 -7 0 35 36 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 2382 2322 2263 2214 2164 2067 1950 1798 1637 1475 1318 1100 826 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 7 9 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 10 6 5 4 3 5 7 1 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -16. -17. -15. -17. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##