* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 24 24 26 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 24 24 26 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 7 4 6 9 13 17 19 21 24 31 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 1 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 26 327 287 249 247 251 253 252 244 235 251 259 257 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 137 139 140 138 135 132 129 129 129 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 65 61 59 58 55 53 54 50 47 47 47 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 37 33 43 47 41 41 34 30 30 33 24 33 200 MB DIV 61 50 55 66 46 58 72 73 115 81 31 -26 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 0 -2 4 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1342 1268 1195 1137 1082 936 764 607 523 490 513 545 593 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.2 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 145.5 146.3 147.1 147.9 148.6 150.3 152.3 154.2 155.9 157.3 158.5 159.5 160.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 5 5 6 22 14 9 19 22 21 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -7. -10. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##