* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 07/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 17 22 27 29 31 29 31 29 28 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 0 0 0 6 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 321 331 315 297 293 288 279 293 299 308 314 312 296 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 141 139 136 131 125 121 117 114 109 106 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 65 66 64 60 57 52 48 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -19 -23 -17 -20 -24 -19 -20 -17 -15 -8 -6 -3 200 MB DIV 40 34 32 2 19 38 17 -14 -41 -39 -47 -18 20 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 0 0 -2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1711 1746 1784 1825 1868 1917 1942 1983 2053 2135 2233 2061 1865 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.4 16.2 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.3 125.0 125.8 126.5 127.9 129.1 130.2 131.3 132.5 133.7 135.3 137.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 5 4 3 2 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -13. -19. -24. -29. -31. -33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 07/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 07/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##