* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 07/25/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 39 43 45 45 42 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 39 43 45 45 42 37 34 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 32 31 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 1 2 6 5 3 15 11 8 16 19 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 0 1 -2 3 4 0 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 314 279 218 202 222 272 321 317 260 240 248 250 284 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.2 28.3 27.0 25.3 24.4 23.7 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 160 160 161 158 148 135 116 106 98 90 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 7 6 4 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 83 81 78 78 74 70 70 65 65 62 59 54 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -10 -13 -13 -11 -10 -10 -11 -15 -32 -43 -33 -35 200 MB DIV 62 50 42 35 23 1 8 22 16 12 -9 -9 -37 700-850 TADV 4 6 6 4 1 1 0 5 5 9 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 705 697 676 683 703 760 834 822 846 832 848 827 835 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.9 12.5 13.1 13.6 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.5 20.2 21.6 22.9 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.4 105.5 106.7 107.8 110.2 112.6 114.9 116.9 118.7 120.0 121.2 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 52 82 68 51 23 23 13 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 31. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 20. 17. 12. 9. 6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 07/25/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 07/25/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##