* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 33 35 34 31 28 26 25 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 33 35 34 31 28 26 25 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 24 24 23 22 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 4 3 6 8 8 11 8 13 15 20 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -4 -8 -4 -10 -2 -3 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 15 60 130 182 206 226 270 250 244 241 235 250 269 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 143 145 144 141 138 136 134 134 133 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 59 62 64 62 60 57 56 56 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 13 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 38 38 40 46 35 39 24 25 29 33 38 200 MB DIV 70 68 65 43 26 44 58 130 100 49 -3 -13 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1299 1248 1198 1146 1099 954 814 714 696 716 764 816 885 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 147.2 147.9 148.6 149.4 150.2 152.1 154.2 156.2 157.8 159.1 160.2 161.1 162.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 7 8 11 19 18 28 18 14 13 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 14. 12. 8. 6. 5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##