* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 38 38 34 33 31 32 34 32 32 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 38 38 34 33 31 32 34 32 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 41 40 37 35 33 32 32 32 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 12 10 13 9 16 14 19 7 3 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 3 3 4 -1 -7 -8 -3 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 302 300 302 292 296 318 330 330 337 349 46 175 193 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 139 139 138 136 133 130 128 128 129 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 64 62 62 59 57 57 63 67 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 17 14 14 13 14 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 17 8 10 11 14 29 11 8 0 4 18 13 24 200 MB DIV 62 60 56 47 10 -12 -30 -18 -1 1 10 57 23 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 2 2 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 2187 2125 2063 1997 1931 1794 1643 1470 1296 1146 1012 853 680 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.4 137.0 137.6 138.2 139.4 140.8 142.5 144.3 145.9 147.3 149.1 151.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 5 7 4 6 5 1 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -9. -8. -6. -8. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##