* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 07/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 22 28 30 29 27 21 23 21 21 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 0 5 4 3 0 -4 -8 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 326 313 297 293 289 281 286 286 301 320 327 296 264 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.5 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 138 137 132 125 120 119 114 109 107 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 64 63 62 58 53 51 46 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -17 -12 -14 -8 0 -12 -2 -15 -5 -10 -3 -1 200 MB DIV 36 33 22 36 39 51 -2 -4 -35 -42 -25 0 24 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -1 -5 -5 -4 -5 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1761 1804 1849 1892 1926 1949 1992 2046 2141 2203 2042 1845 1648 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.2 16.1 16.8 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 125.3 126.1 127.0 127.8 129.1 130.3 131.3 132.5 134.0 135.5 137.3 139.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 7 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 4 3 1 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -19. -23. -27. -29. -31. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 07/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 07/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##