* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 07/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 44 49 55 57 57 54 49 44 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 41 44 49 55 57 57 54 49 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 47 51 53 52 48 42 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 2 2 5 11 11 4 8 10 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 4 -2 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 44 89 139 169 236 2 352 340 319 256 269 291 326 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.0 28.0 26.7 25.4 24.6 24.1 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 160 161 161 155 145 131 116 107 101 97 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 81 78 78 75 72 69 68 64 63 63 60 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -19 -19 -17 -13 -16 -30 -39 -61 -53 -49 -29 200 MB DIV 65 55 30 17 9 0 12 22 -5 4 -13 -23 -28 700-850 TADV 7 7 4 1 1 -1 1 0 4 5 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 720 700 691 700 712 787 797 786 788 769 782 777 791 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 15.0 16.3 17.6 19.0 20.3 21.4 22.3 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.1 106.2 107.4 108.5 110.8 113.0 115.0 116.7 118.0 119.0 119.8 120.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 41 73 79 56 44 21 24 8 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 19. 25. 27. 27. 24. 19. 14. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 07/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 07/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##