* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 36 35 32 35 33 34 36 38 38 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 36 35 32 35 33 34 36 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 39 37 36 32 29 26 25 24 24 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 14 12 10 10 11 8 4 1 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 1 2 1 0 -6 1 -1 0 3 5 SHEAR DIR 293 290 293 291 295 284 336 320 330 342 116 57 106 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 140 140 139 137 133 129 128 129 131 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 64 65 62 57 55 57 61 67 66 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 15 15 15 17 15 18 18 19 20 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 15 20 24 25 15 25 12 31 36 30 37 200 MB DIV 52 44 31 13 0 10 18 29 30 61 83 60 60 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 0 1 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 2181 2134 2088 2017 1946 1780 1619 1423 1226 1061 945 834 728 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.8 13.8 13.8 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 135.9 136.4 136.8 137.5 138.1 139.6 141.1 143.0 145.0 146.8 148.2 149.7 151.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 5 7 5 7 3 1 1 4 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -5. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##