* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 07/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 50 58 66 67 64 57 51 45 40 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 50 58 66 67 64 57 51 45 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 41 44 52 57 58 56 51 45 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 1 1 4 10 9 12 11 14 14 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 1 0 2 1 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 57 53 39 223 333 346 351 337 306 322 330 349 351 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.8 27.8 26.6 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 160 161 160 153 142 129 117 109 105 102 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 71 68 65 62 61 58 60 55 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 11 10 11 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -23 -21 -18 -18 -26 -31 -46 -59 -58 -58 -53 -38 200 MB DIV 56 32 13 2 5 -7 32 7 13 -24 -23 -31 -29 700-850 TADV 8 4 2 5 0 -4 2 0 5 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 700 693 703 719 735 835 814 821 834 830 840 862 885 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.7 18.9 20.0 21.0 21.6 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.8 106.0 107.1 108.2 109.3 111.6 113.8 115.6 117.3 118.5 119.4 120.2 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 66 82 60 49 33 21 25 6 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 20. 28. 36. 37. 34. 27. 21. 15. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 07/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 75% is 5.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 49% is 7.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 49% is 12.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 07/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##