* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 39 40 36 35 35 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 32 35 39 40 36 35 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 5 7 10 8 6 6 9 10 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 0 0 -5 -4 -3 6 7 1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 83 233 243 264 256 314 309 304 305 273 285 291 263 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 147 145 143 141 140 141 140 142 143 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 51 51 56 61 64 65 68 67 64 60 59 59 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 12 11 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 33 38 39 31 22 14 9 5 7 18 23 200 MB DIV 24 25 34 66 67 36 69 65 35 -26 -36 -20 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -8 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1124 1100 1084 1053 1033 1011 1021 1069 1129 1211 1295 1359 1420 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.1 10.7 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 152.0 152.9 153.8 154.8 155.8 158.0 159.9 161.6 162.9 164.1 165.4 166.6 167.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 11 9 8 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 25 35 39 34 29 16 15 18 24 35 39 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 11. 10. 10. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##