* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 07/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 28 24 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 23 24 26 25 20 21 17 15 6 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 4 5 3 0 -2 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 297 285 283 276 276 287 300 316 327 345 353 21 11 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 141 141 141 138 136 134 132 129 128 129 129 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 68 66 66 64 61 60 58 57 56 60 64 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -18 -17 -17 -15 -22 -7 -12 1 2 13 11 14 200 MB DIV 27 21 7 36 39 2 16 -2 -24 -7 -6 22 30 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1881 1927 1975 2016 2054 2135 2206 2318 2252 2097 1936 1791 1652 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 5 8 19 19 2 16 14 11 16 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -18. -16. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 07/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 07/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##