* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 23 24 27 29 31 31 31 29 25 25 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 23 24 27 29 31 31 31 29 25 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 23 22 21 21 21 22 21 21 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 0 2 3 6 7 9 6 7 8 6 4 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 4 1 -1 -5 -3 -2 3 3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 266 259 268 275 288 352 332 334 308 311 280 270 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 147 147 144 142 141 140 140 139 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 58 63 67 68 69 70 66 63 61 61 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 38 44 43 34 21 9 5 8 15 16 28 200 MB DIV 20 34 59 54 61 68 53 70 44 -8 -21 -16 -17 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -4 -3 0 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1130 1107 1093 1066 1052 1040 1057 1103 1160 1226 1295 1315 1342 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 LONG(DEG W) 152.8 153.8 154.7 155.8 156.8 158.9 160.6 162.0 163.1 164.2 165.2 165.8 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 22 34 42 36 32 22 17 17 20 23 31 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 0. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##