* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 21 19 18 21 26 26 28 27 30 30 V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 21 19 18 21 26 26 28 27 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 26 24 21 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 16 14 16 11 2 2 7 3 3 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -6 -6 0 -1 -4 1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 289 282 280 284 295 317 289 334 265 84 201 162 282 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 140 142 142 139 133 130 129 128 128 131 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 64 63 60 55 57 62 65 64 69 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 18 18 19 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 17 27 24 21 23 23 31 29 28 43 53 200 MB DIV 13 -5 -7 -5 -5 33 47 52 46 37 21 26 30 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -4 -2 -4 0 1 1 1 3 2 4 LAND (KM) 2088 2014 1941 1855 1771 1574 1390 1218 1066 945 853 741 641 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.1 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 136.8 137.5 138.2 139.1 139.9 141.8 143.6 145.3 146.9 148.2 149.1 150.7 152.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 3 1 2 1 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 9. 10. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -9. -4. -4. -2. -3. 0. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##