* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082014 07/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 39 44 43 41 37 31 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 39 44 43 41 37 31 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 36 38 36 33 29 25 22 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 8 11 16 26 21 15 13 29 40 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 4 4 -2 0 2 0 -4 -9 -9 SHEAR DIR 126 242 301 297 311 297 287 252 267 305 333 350 349 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.2 27.7 26.2 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 163 158 142 126 112 107 102 100 97 95 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 70 66 62 61 59 58 57 52 49 43 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 12 12 13 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -10 -9 -12 -22 -26 -39 -43 -46 -45 -59 -58 -61 200 MB DIV 19 13 18 9 4 28 27 11 -22 -17 -33 -44 -50 700-850 TADV 7 9 5 2 0 8 0 11 1 2 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 624 618 637 690 666 668 722 809 912 985 1088 1170 1230 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.6 19.8 20.8 21.5 21.9 22.0 22.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.3 109.5 110.8 112.0 114.5 116.8 118.9 120.8 122.3 123.7 124.7 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 36 27 22 21 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 14. 18. 20. 21. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 14. 13. 11. 7. 1. -6. -13. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 EIGHT 07/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 EIGHT 07/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##