* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 07/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 25 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 25 28 29 28 24 21 15 16 9 9 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 2 3 2 0 -1 -6 -4 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 286 278 273 278 275 292 305 317 344 38 42 48 52 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 142 141 138 135 131 131 131 131 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 65 66 64 62 64 66 68 73 78 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -15 -12 -15 -17 -19 -13 0 10 46 65 58 200 MB DIV 31 24 33 46 21 19 24 19 8 20 19 56 28 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1949 2004 2049 2084 2120 2221 2350 2238 2121 1951 1752 1572 1430 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 8 15 18 1 17 22 17 8 11 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -22. -21. -19. -17. -13. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 07/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 07/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##