* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 26 32 35 36 39 43 45 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 26 32 35 36 39 43 45 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 27 30 32 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 6 10 9 10 9 7 3 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -6 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 250 258 277 312 340 356 341 7 23 113 184 191 234 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 146 145 144 143 142 142 142 143 144 147 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 61 66 68 69 71 68 67 67 64 61 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 10 11 11 10 11 12 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 34 42 48 47 46 34 27 25 12 5 8 4 6 200 MB DIV 38 55 48 65 63 98 77 62 28 -20 -13 6 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -7 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1078 1062 1057 1046 1049 1071 1130 1194 1289 1369 1443 1502 1606 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.3 10.6 10.9 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.6 LONG(DEG W) 154.1 155.1 156.1 157.2 158.2 160.1 161.7 163.1 164.4 165.7 166.9 167.9 169.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 34 32 27 20 21 24 29 38 39 28 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -4. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 7. 10. 11. 14. 18. 20. 19. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/26/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##