* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 07/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 27 29 29 28 26 21 14 10 1 4 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 5 1 0 -5 -3 0 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 279 275 278 280 288 302 312 323 350 344 27 3 351 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 142 140 137 132 130 128 128 128 127 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 66 65 63 61 65 62 66 70 77 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -15 -18 -20 -22 -17 -18 1 6 27 55 71 61 200 MB DIV 17 13 32 7 -6 14 23 21 15 -2 20 41 17 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 2000 2053 2107 2152 2197 2301 2269 2145 2018 1875 1686 1535 1412 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 10 17 20 5 19 16 13 12 14 12 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -25. -28. -30. -29. -27. -24. -21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 07/26/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 07/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##