* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 25 23 23 24 28 31 35 36 38 35 34 V (KT) LAND 30 27 25 23 23 24 28 31 35 36 38 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 24 21 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 19 14 16 11 5 4 4 1 5 7 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -5 -7 -3 -3 1 4 1 5 5 0 SHEAR DIR 281 282 281 289 303 317 64 322 73 115 78 300 260 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 27.0 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 140 138 133 130 128 127 128 133 132 129 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 62 63 61 60 65 70 73 72 66 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 16 17 17 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 19 18 20 23 10 29 35 60 80 65 45 200 MB DIV -7 -14 -9 5 32 69 80 88 47 45 47 37 17 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 0 1 2 4 9 10 LAND (KM) 1877 1793 1710 1627 1545 1372 1177 1018 899 800 737 620 468 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.7 14.1 14.2 13.7 14.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 138.8 139.7 140.6 141.5 142.3 144.0 146.0 147.4 148.5 149.7 151.3 152.8 154.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 7 6 7 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 10 11 10 3 1 2 1 8 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -2. 1. 5. 6. 8. 5. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##