* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 51 52 53 50 44 38 30 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 51 52 53 50 44 38 30 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 48 51 53 52 46 40 34 29 25 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 8 10 11 14 12 9 19 34 36 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 7 8 6 -1 1 1 -7 -7 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 291 304 293 291 288 206 214 209 334 352 348 335 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.6 29.0 28.3 26.6 25.0 24.1 23.7 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 162 156 148 131 114 103 99 92 92 89 86 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 64 62 61 59 60 58 57 50 46 43 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -20 -27 -21 -28 -40 -42 -33 -40 -53 -57 -62 -60 200 MB DIV 32 18 13 34 28 28 16 -17 22 -37 -37 -45 -44 700-850 TADV 6 4 2 8 9 5 13 0 7 -1 4 0 3 LAND (KM) 530 573 616 565 548 596 675 785 857 980 1124 1258 1381 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 18.9 20.2 21.3 22.2 22.8 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.6 110.8 112.0 113.1 115.3 117.7 119.8 121.5 123.2 124.8 126.3 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 12 12 9 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 23 18 15 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -2. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 10. 4. -2. -10. -20. -30. -38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##