* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 07/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 32 34 34 31 29 24 19 6 6 7 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 278 282 291 297 307 315 321 344 13 48 84 9 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 141 139 135 130 129 128 128 130 130 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 65 64 61 59 64 62 63 66 72 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -23 -28 -22 -22 -26 -2 9 41 86 80 61 200 MB DIV 16 26 1 -2 1 17 9 15 22 3 65 25 42 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2049 2096 2144 2190 2237 2351 2194 2073 1950 1821 1677 1523 1347 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 16 20 17 1 15 15 12 15 15 12 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -9. -13. -22. -30. -36. -39. -38. -35. -31. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 07/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 07/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##