* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP912014 07/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 39 39 37 33 29 26 23 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 36 39 39 37 33 29 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 23 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 6 7 6 7 11 12 12 16 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -5 -4 0 4 7 0 -2 -1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 261 291 327 336 292 276 238 272 283 271 253 248 258 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 141 140 138 137 137 137 136 136 136 137 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 66 65 60 60 57 52 47 42 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 10 12 12 13 14 13 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 46 40 33 39 45 37 20 23 26 25 38 43 33 200 MB DIV 28 25 23 33 52 81 79 7 -23 -33 -21 -31 -21 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -6 -10 -8 -6 -2 -1 2 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 971 956 956 952 960 1000 1047 1109 1131 1138 1141 1141 1141 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 156.5 157.6 158.6 159.5 160.4 161.9 163.0 164.0 164.7 165.2 165.6 165.9 166.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 16 12 11 11 13 19 25 29 32 31 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 14. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP912014 INVEST 07/27/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP912014 INVEST 07/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##