* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072014 07/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 31 36 39 44 42 45 39 37 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 31 36 39 44 42 45 39 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 24 25 27 29 29 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 12 8 5 6 4 1 1 1 5 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 0 0 4 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 281 277 280 275 295 1 145 327 82 268 348 303 248 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 139 137 131 128 128 128 129 129 127 127 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 64 65 61 61 66 72 71 65 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 14 16 17 18 18 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 18 20 26 24 18 38 47 54 72 60 52 200 MB DIV -8 0 3 28 55 87 109 67 55 31 41 5 3 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 1 0 1 3 7 6 3 LAND (KM) 1795 1705 1615 1526 1438 1261 1089 969 876 794 695 610 529 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.5 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 139.7 140.7 141.6 142.5 143.4 145.1 146.8 148.0 149.0 149.9 151.0 151.9 152.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 5 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 11 11 4 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -6. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 14. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. 1. 6. 9. 14. 12. 15. 9. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072014 GENEVIEVE 07/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##